Holler's 2024 CMA Awards Predictions: Who Will Win, Who Should Win and Who Missed Out

There's no denying that the last 18 months or so have been a landmark period for country music.

With something like eight songs surging to the top of the all-genre Billboard Hot 100 – a feat that we've not seen this often since 1975 – it's safe to say that the genre has never been more popular than it is at present.

As with everything in life, it's imperative to look back on your accomplishments, celebrate the wins and honor the victors, which is exactly what the country music community will do on November 20 at the 58th Annual CMA Awards.

Taking over Nashville's Bridgestone Arena, most if not all of the genre's illustrious stars will gather together to put a cap on 2024, but not without commemorating the strides country music made along the way.

As several giants of the genre walk into this year's ceremony with multiple nods in their favor, including Morgan Wallen's seven, Cody Johnson and Chris Stapleton's five and Post Malone and Lainey Wilson's four, it begs the question of who exactly will emerge victorious among such a stacked slew of nominees.

Yet, the question also persists of whether these award shows really have their fingers on the pulse of what's happening in country music right now at all.

With a nomination list that often reads like the same old who's who of the genre that leaves us scratching our heads to remember what all they did that was so noteworthy throughout the year, is it worth questioning the structure that we've treated as Bible for nearly six decades? Furthermore, is it time for organizations like the CMA to break away from tradition and honor the legion of acts making headway outside of what is deemed the archaic "commercial" space? Lord knows there's plenty of them out there.

Looking ahead to the show, we've taken some key statistics, data and a healthy dose of opinion into consideration to drum up Holler's 2024 CMA Awards Predictions. We're placing our bets and buckling up for a ceremony that will surely bring us plenty of surprises – and potentially some shocking victories and losses in its 11 main categories.

Here are Holler's Predictions for the 2024 CMA Awards:

Ross' Take: This year, the Entertainer of the Year award, and the ceremony on the whole, once again finds itself in a position of having it's relevancy and authority questioned. The disrupter that presents that issue? Morgan Wallen.

It's been hard to look past Wallen for this award both this year and last (sorry Lainey), particularly when considering his public acceptance and overall contribution to country music. He's the biggest out-and-out country star in the world (Zach Bryan took himself out of that argument), has the highest selling country tour of all time and, according to Spotify, is the 100th Most Listened to Artist in the World. You can't argue with those numbers.

The hurdle Wallen continues to stumble over is embodied by a single word in CMA's eligibility for the award; Leadership. The chair incident is just another valid reason for CMA and its voters not to give Wallen his recognition, and you can see how it taints their view of his public acceptance and overall contribution to the genre negatively.

So this year, it really comes down to two, whether it softens the legitimacy of the award or not.

Lainey Wilson has had another standout year. Everywhere you turn, Lainey is there – performing headline festival shows, selling out arenas, changing tyres during Pit Stops at the Formula 1 Grand Prix – if it's offered, Lainey will take it with both hands and run with it. The trouble is, have people already started to tire of her?

Whirlwind was a critical blot on what's been a pretty solid run of acclaim in Wilson's discography, and that's translated commercially also – 'Hang Tight Honey' was her first solo single to not reach No.1 since 'Dirty Looks' in 2019. Listeners are speaking, and this can't be ignored.

As mad and wrong as it sounds, actually winning this award for the second year in row could hurt Wilson's public perception – something she in no way deserves and that would hurt the genre on the whole.

That leaves one man. When it comes to public acceptance, leadership and overall contribution to country music, you're again hard pressed to find someone in these past twelve months who has kept country in the mainstream consciousness more than Jelly Roll.

Whether he's doing State Farm commercials or performing at WWE events, Jelly Roll is showing leadership and a commitment to positive engagement within communities across the country, something that only really Lainey can also attest to. He also incites a crowd in such positive fanfare that any questioning of his in-person performance is nigh on futile.

Jelly Roll's deserving of such an accolade, and would allow him to come full circle on what has been a remarkable, Hollywood you may even say, story.

Lydia's Take: Let's start by remembering the difference between Single and Song of the Year. Song of the Year is judged based on it's content and the craft of songwriting, whereas the Single of the Year is decided on its chart and commercial performance.

With that in mind, it's frankly hard to see how this trophy doesn't go to either Post Malone and Morgan Wallen's 'I Had Some Help' or Shaboozey's 'A Bar Song (Tipsy).' And, in all reality, how can it not go to the record-breaking, 17 total week Billboard Hot 100 chart-topping single?

As two of the most streamed and commercially successful songs in the genre in the last 12 months – though, yes, their success did come at the tail end of the eligibility period – it makes a really tough case for Stapleton, Johnson or Wilson to deserve this one. Exactly who decided that a single released in August of 2022 should be in contention brings that even more into question. Yeah, we're looking at you, 'Watermelon Moonshine.'

At the end of the day, this list of nominees feels overall pretty boring and out of touch with what's actually connecting with country audiences in 2024.

While all of these songs were seemingly successes on terrestrial radio (we guess?), it's hard to justify why bigger, genre-defying, blockbuster singles like Dasha's ‘Austin,’ Beyoncé's ‘Texas Hold ‘Em,’ Nate Smith's ‘World On Fire’ or Ella Langley and Riley Green's power duet 'you look like you love me' weren't included instead.

Alli's Take: For an album to be in the running for CMA’s Album of the Year, the record must contain at least six different songs and must be at least 15 minutes long. All of this year’s nominees meet that criteria, but that’s about all they meet.

Kacey Musgraves’ Deeper Well, Luke Combs’ Fathers & Sons, Chris Stapleton’s Higher, Cody Johnson’s Leather and Jelly Roll’s Whitsitt Chapel – these are the BEST albums to have come out of the eligibility period? These? Out of 12 months of country music, we’re stuck with these?

It’s a boring list that pits pretty mediocre albums against each other. Deeper Well was fine; Fathers & Sons was also fine, but it neglected half of Combs’ fanbase being an album solely for and about men; and Whitsitt Chapel was not only forgettable, it was released outside of the eligibility period.

It’ll likely be a toss-up between Stapleton’s Higher and Johnson’s Leather, but you can’t tell me that after a year of country music this is all there is.

Jof's Take: The award for Song of the Year, unlike Single of the Year, goes to the writers of the song and recognizes artistic achievement in songwriting. Any country music song with original words and music is eligible based upon the song’s activity during the eligibility period.

Last year, Tracy Chapman beat out big hitters 'wait in the truck,' 'Tennessee Orange,' 'Next Thing You Know' and 'Heart Like a Truck' to take away the award for 'Fast Car,' after Luke Combs had a huge year with the song.

Sadly, this year's line-up for Song of the Year doesn't look anywhere near as impressive.

Cody Johnson picks up a double nomination, of which only 'Dirt Cheap' is really deserving, while the eight writers on Post Malone and Morgan Wallen's 'I Had Some Help' will be glad theirs was the only song off F-1Trillion released during the eligibility period. Even Chris Stapleton must have spat out his cornflakes when he heard 'White Horse' had been nominated.

'The Architect' by Kacey Musgraves and Tyler Childers' 'In Your Love' are notable for their absence. As are any other songs by female artists, but at least Kat Higgins co-wrote 'The Painter' and previous Song of the Year winners the Love Junkies wrote 'Burn It Down' with Parker McCollum. 'Dirt Cheap' would probably be the most deserving winner and we've got a good feeling about this one.

Maxim's Take: You have to go all the way back to 2005 to find the last time neither Carrie Underwood nor Miranda Lambert was nominated in this category, making 2024 feel like the year country ushered in its new guard of female superstars.

Even so, it’s satisfying to see Kacey Musgraves being welcomed in from the cold, after her divisive 2021 effort, star-crossed, was omitted from the nominations list for being too ‘pop.’ On the flipside, it’s surprising not to see Beyoncé featuring, with the CMA seemingly rejecting COWBOY CARTER as a valid country album – or perhaps Beyoncé withdrew herself from consideration.

Kelsea Ballerini has just released one of the biggest projects of the year, PATTERNS, but this falls outside the 2024 CMA Awards eligibility window, and we therefore think Ballerini will be a frontrunner for the 2025 gong. McBryde, meanwhile, has struggled to maintain the momentum built by her stellar 2020 record, Never Will, in recent years.

With the release of her lauded sophomore album, Am I Okay?, Megan Moroney (who is bizarrely also nominated for New Artist of the Year) has cemented herself as a future Entertainer of the Year challenger. In its first week, Am I Okay? moved 43,000 units and debuted inside the Top 10 of the Billboard 200. Given the fact that Moroney was an entirely unknown name in 2022, we think her meteoric ascent warrants recognition in the Female Vocalist of the Year category, with the Georgia native pioneering a more conversational, witty and introspective form of songwriting in the genre.

Having said that – as is the case with Chris Stapleton – it seems to be an unspoken CMA rule that if Lainey Wilson is nominated, more often than not, Lainey Wilson will win. Although Whirlwind also debuted in the Top 10 of the Billboard 200, it certainly feels as though it fell flat with listeners and failed to make the big splash it was gearing up for.

Nonetheless, Lainey has been an ever-present force throughout the year, helping to push country music to new audiences and serving as a worthy figurehead for the genre on the biggest stages, from the Grammys to the People’s Choice Awards. While Moroney gets our vote, bear in mind that the artist’s “overall contribution to country music” holds considerable sway in this category, so it’s difficult to look past Wilson in this regard.

Lydia's Take: As mentioned above, we've learned over the years that if Chris Stapleton is nominated for a CMA Award, especially Male Vocalist of the Year, there's a pretty decent chance that he'll win it.

With something like 20 CMA trophies to his name – seven of which are Male Vocalist of the Year honors (2015-2018, 2021-2023) – it's just really difficult to see how history doesn't repeat itself once again this year. The thing, too, is that if you're truly judging on vocal ability, Stapleton sings all of the other dudes under the table. In fact, it's such a non-competition that it's almost embarrassing to be nominated against him.

While Combs' performance of 'Ain't No Love in Oklahoma' surely ranks among his best to date, and even though we'd really love to see Johnson finally get his due after nominations the past three years, we'd be gobsmacked for anyone other than the bearded crooner to take the crown for this one.

Ross' Take: Ah, the Old Dominion Vocal Group of the Year Award. Old Dominion will win this one, but its nice to dream.

The group are still a few away from matching The Statler Brothers’ record nine wins, and the category is infamous for its lack of variety in its recipients since its inaugural presentation in 1967, so why fix what’s not broken, right?

Wrong.

You knew this was coming, we were always going to say The Red Clay Strays should win. If Flatland Cavalry were in this category instead of them, we would’ve said them, and the same goes for Midland. Yet instead of questioning our snot-nosed hipster attitude, surely we should be asking why The Red Clay Strays, Flatland Cavalry and Midland have to battle for one spot when Lady A, Little Big Town and Zac Brown Band, three groups who lost their relevancy and any quality they had in the mid-2010s, can phone in for a nod?

Again, it’s all a moot point, Old Dominion will win.

Jof's Take: If insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting a different result, then the CMA award for Vocal Group of the Year should be evidence enough to get the CMA Award Voter's heads examined.

The biggest mystery of the Vocal Duo of the Year award is why we even bother with an award for Vocal Duo of the Year when the CMA doesn't consider actually duetting partners anymore.

When the award was first introduced in 1970, Dolly Parton & Porter Wagoner won in a category that included Merle Haggard & Bonny Owens and Johnny Cash & June Carter Cash amongst the nominees. In 1988, the eligibility rules were changed to not allow artists who were also solo artists to be nominated. Because of that rule change, The Judds and Brooks & Dunn won 17 times between them over the following 18 years.

In a year that's been defined by high profile duets between Ella Langley and Riley Green, Post Malone's collaboration heavy F-1 Trillion project and Beyoncé's COWBOY CARTER, it seems willfully pertinacious for the CMA to insist that "neither of the duetting partners can be known primarily as an individual performing artist."

It does explain why this year's list of nominees is identical to last year's though. After all, how many standalone vocal duos can one genre really have?

Maybe it's time to completely overhaul this category to include duetting solo artists and put all the duos up for the Vocal Group of the Year award instead. If this category allowed duets between solo artists in their own right, then it would be one of the most closely fought and intriguing contests of the evening.

Maxim's Take: There’s an argument to say that Post Malone’s entire foray into country music has been the musical event of the year, but if we have to narrow it down, then it has to be the arrival of the first song from F-1Trillion.

Country fans had been waiting for Posty to venture into Music City ever since his 2015 tweet, “WHEN I TURN 30 IM BECOMING A COUNTRY/FOLK SINGER,” which meant expectations were through the roof when we found out he was hard at work at his debut country record.

What better way, then, to allay any nervousness or doubt about the quality of this forthcoming body of work than teaming up with the most popular country artist on the planet, Morgan Wallen, for a blockbuster duet.

‘I Had Some Help’ opened the F-1Trillion flood-gates, and went on to become one of the biggest songs of the year across all genres. The infectious, uptempo anthem spent 6 weeks at No. 1 on the Billboard Hot 100, earning itself the official title of Billboard’s Song of the Summer, and consolidated Morgan’s status as a serial chart-topper, while simultaneously quashing any concerns that Malone had lost his hit-making touch. It’s been ubiquitous since its release, and dwarfs the other contenders in terms of streaming muscle and the buzz that surrounded its release.

‘you look like you love me’ is probably the closest challenger to ‘I Had Some Help,‘ due to the immense virality of Ella Langley and Riley Green’s romantic duet, but it has around one seventh of the streams and is yet to hit No. 1 at US country radio – so this feels better suited as a leading candidate for next year's event.

Although a fascinating link-up between a country trailblazer and a folk titan, Kelsea Ballerini and Noah Kahan’s ‘Cowboys Cry Too’ didn’t do PATTERNS justice as the lead single and never made its intended impact. Meanwhile, Morgan Wallen and Eric Church’s ’Man Made a Bar’ is a cleverly composed earworm, yet it was released back in March 2023, so we’re left scratching our heads as to how it’s eligible for 2024 Musical Event of the Year.

Zach Bryan and Kacey Musgraves’ ‘I Remember Everything’ remains a commercial smash, but it would be astonishing if the CMA decided to give this accolade to a man who regularly outlines his distaste for both award shows and mainstream country music in general.

Alli's Take: When it comes to these award shows, there’s a question that sometimes niggles at the back of the mind: Who cares?

Who cares who wins this or wears that and thanks this person? But that question especially applies to the award for Music Video of the Year. Who the hell cares?

This award goes to an original country music video no longer than ten minutes and of no more than one song, but why are we focusing on a dying medium when the CMT Awards, a ceremony that solely doles out these video-specific honors, already has that covered?

I'm hard-pressed to remember the last time I watched a music video or think back to a time when such a visual affected the song. It's difficult to judge something that hasn't been relevant in a long while.

As far as the victor of this category goes, Cody Johnson’s name is on two of the five nominations, so let’s just give it to him and call it a night.

Alli's Take: The CMA Award for New Artist of the Year has some pretty straight-forward criteria, the honor meant to go to the artist who has shown the most significant creative growth and development since the launch of their career. However, many of this year’s nominees launched their careers years ago.

For Mitchell Tenpenny, who has been releasing country music for over a decade, and Nate Smith, who has also been actively making music since 2018, to be considered “new artists” feels a bit out of touch and slightly insulting. Even for Megan Moroney, who, at two massively acclaimed albums in, is nearing bonafide superstardom, to be considered a breakout artist is shocking. At least she’s a shoo-in for Female Vocalist of the Year.

That leaves Shaboozey, Zach Top and Bailey Zimmerman as the most eligible artists in this running. Shaboozey will probably be the one to take home the honor, but in the end, it will likely be for the wrong reason: ‘A Bar Song (Tipsy)’.

The artist is undoubtedly deserving of the honor. His game-changing sound has been a balm for much of mainstream country, but he’s more than just his viral hit. For some reason, we just can’t see beyond ‘A Bar Song (Tipsy)’ and it’s a real shame.

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For more on the 2024 CMA Awards, see below: