CMA Awards 2025 Predictions: Who Will Win, Who Should Win & Biggest Snubs

Buckle up, country fans - it’s that magical time of year again when Nashville dusts off its sparkliest rhinestones, warms up the smoke machines, and politely pretends there isn’t any backstage drama.

Yes, the 59th Annual CMA Awards are galloping toward us, and we’re here with bold predictions, absurdly confident guesses, and just enough sass to make even Gavin Adcock raise an eyebrow. From category upsets to who’s about to add another trophy to their already dangerously overloaded mantle, we’re breaking down what might go down on country music’s biggest night. Grab your boots, grab your beverage, and let’s get into it.

Here are Holler's Predictions for the 59th Annual CMA Awards:

It's not that we want to kick things off on a sour note, but let's look back a couple years previously.

If Lainey Wilson was receiving Entertainer of The Year nods when she was still a supporting act, then where is the flowers for Megan Moroney or Ella Langley?

It's difficult to think of two acts who have had bigger, more successful years in the genre, and they've certainly had more of an impact in the wider consciousness than Chris Stapleton or Cody Johnson have in the past 12 months.

Megan and Ella are both leading and driving the zeitgeist for country music within pop culture, so to not be considered for the biggest prize is quite baffling.

Of those nominated, you can't look past Morgan here. With voting members getting past their indecisiveness by awarding him the biggest nod of the night last year, Wallen is the clear frontrunner - even if he did snub it by not turning up last year.

The specifics of eligibility for Single of The Year at the CMA Awards is an interesting one - there's not necessarily a condition or consideration of quality, simply whether it made any of Billboard's charts and thus made dollars.

With this in mind, the immediate snub is Morgan Wallen - with more No.1s, particularly in the last 12 months, including two No.1s on the Billboard Hot 100. Nevertheless, 'What I want' (with Tate McRae) and Love Somebody are nowhere to be found.

With '4x4xU', you can at least make the argument that you've heard it - the song was across adverts as well as the charts.

The CMA Awards unfortunately only recognise and applaud a very specific subset within country music - that which is commercial and deemed a mainstream success. As the GRAMMYs have found this past year, this does a great disservice to the genre and will also not pass without comment.

It's fantastic to Zach Top immediately nominated in the top tier categories of Male Vocalist and Album, but did that mean he also needed a spot in New Artist also? Perhaps that spot could've gone to someone even more fresh faced within country music? More to come on that.

Megan certainly deserves this one - Am I Okay? was unquestionably one of the best country albums of 2024. It's truly a toss-up as to who will win. What will come under great scrutiny on the evening is the amount she wins and her reaction. If Moroney was to miss out across the board - does she do a Kacey and forgo the genre completely for a pop at well... pop? She's certainly the one artist with the capability to do so.

There's two here that really should win Song of the Year.

We don't think Megan, her team and the wider industry expected 'Am I Okay', even as a title track and slow-burn single, to have the impact it did, even thought it is a fantastic song. In the same respect, 'I Never Lie' is a generational track, one that regardless of whether it wins or not, or if Zach ever has another big song, will be remembered in its time.

In terms of will win, 'Texas', even if it was Blake's most popular song in years, is a wild inclusion. '4x4xU', much in the same way that it has been across truck commercials, had the broadest scope and widespread appeal, can't be discredited, even if this particular award is meant to be based around the craft rather than popularity. 'You Look Like You Love Me' can also also sneak up on you, and it was Holler's Song of the Year for 2024 for a reason.

A real tough category, Megan certainly deserves it, but we think Lainey has this one in the bag.

Another real tough category to choose from, particularly because of two f the contenders in the previous category.

Megan Moroney, Ella Langley and Lainey Wilson are the triple threat of the entire ceremony, and whoever comes away from the night with the awards is going to be on the pedestal for the next twelve months.

Meg - the next potential crossover star, Lainey - the industry darling, Ella - the next in line to the throne.

For us, we can't look past Moroney. It's whether the voting members favour her over the industry favourite and country's next queen.

The Chris Stapleton Award for Male Vocalist of the Year? Chris Stapleton, that is all.

It's fantastic that Zach Top has replaced Jelly Roll in this category (based on vocal performance, it's valid), but we can't help but feel there are a few snubs. We're surprised Thomas Rhett has been left out after the past 12-18 months he's had, particularly with the both successful and excellent About A Woman.

The issue we have is that, when looking at what the eligibility constitutes, not all of those nominated can actually sing. When looking at vocal performance, Luke's delivery hasn't been his strongest over the recent singles and, much the same as Jelly Roll, Morgan is not a singer.

It's really down to Cody and Stapleton, and when push comes to shove, it's hard to find a reason not to give it to Chris every single year.

Okay, here's where it gets a little silly.

Much like last year, we can't really see any reason why Old Dominion don't win this one for the eighth year in the row. The fact they can win it in a window where they don't release an album essentially seals it with the release of Barbara this year.

Lady A themselves have said they can't understand how they've been nominated this year, and Little Big Town should really be doing the right thing and at least suggesting the same. Treaty Oak Revival surely replace one of them next year.

If anything, our argument this year is even stronger this time around. The Red Clay Strays have cemented their place as the go-to new band to love - headlining arenas, a CMA Fest main stage debut, worldwide tours - if any band should break through the Old Dominion domination, we can't think of any better. At the same time, we appreciate that the larger demographic watching the CMAs may not even be aware of RCS at this stage.

Old Dominion are going for 10.

Vocal Duo of the Year continues to find itself in a state of stagnation due to its restricting rules that state solo artists aren't eligible to team together and be nominated. If this was the case, you could easily see Riley Green and Ella Langley sweeping the category, the pair having become the closest we've got to George and Tammy at this point.

There's a couple of acts we'd really like to make the case for before delving into the nominations - Muscadine Bloodline continue to be overlooked, the gesture of being nominated would introduce them to such a wide ranging audience who we believe would fall in love with them. They've also perhaps had more recent viral singles that at least three of the acts nominated here.

The other is Thelma & James, and while both Mackenzie and Jake's individual artist credits may scupper them here, their recent releases have very much been as part of a duo. Those releases have also been some of our favourite of this year, so we'd love to see them get a nod next year.

In terms of winners, we're once again hard pressed to find an argument against current holders Brooks & Dunn. Reboot 2 was warmly received, their CMA Fest performance went down an absolute storm and their touring machine never seems to cease. They should deservedly retain.

With new artists being able to be nominated twice if they have not previously won one of the major CMA Awards (Male, Female, Album, Entertainer), the New Artist of the Year award does have to sacrifice a feeling of timeliness in order to capture who may be most deserving of the prestigious New Artist gong.

This year, that does mean Shaboozey and Zach Top will most likely miss out on the win once again. After having lost to Megan Moroney in 2024, this year we believe Ella Langley will take the deserved win home.

If the CMA were to get rid of some of the eligibility restrictions, we'd have love to of seen Gavin Adcock, Dasha, Kaitlin Butts, Avery Anna, even Sierra Ferrell nominated this year. For each, there will always be an opportunity in 2026.

For more on the 2025 CMA Awards, see below: